the meaning behind 'chance of rain' is even more convoluted than you think


When we hear that there's a 50% chance of rain, it's often hard to know exactly what that means. do you need an umbrella?. i always believed that the chance of rain meant literally that the odds that it would rain in the future. it's a fair assumption right?. there's no doubt that the real chance of rain is a multiplicity of these two numbers. A 50% chance of rain, and another 50% chance that the rain hits my location? It's a 25% chance of rain. as complicated as this sounds it's the most accurate way to express the odds that any one place will receive rain. they could have come up with a term that better represented the formula.

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